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Who would win in a non-nuclear war between Mexico and the United States ...
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If the US were seeking to annex Mexico, things would not go very well for the US. As in Iraq, the US would quickly and easily annihilate the standing Mexican military, again because of the superior size and equipment of the US military. But, as long as a sufficient number of Mexicans didn't like the idea of US control, then, as in Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam, an insurgency would begin. Mexicans armed with rifles and IEDs would keep fighting, picking off American troops as opportunities arose. The war would stretch on for years and perhaps even decades.
Seeing mounting US casualties, and the significant Mexican civilian casualties that would surely accompany them, US public opinion would turn against the war, which was probably never supported by the significant number of US citizens who are of Mexican descent. The US would eventually be forced to withdraw its forces. The politicians would find a pretext to declare victory, but everyone would know that really the US lost.
I'm surprised and disturbed that there are so many answers here that say the US would win easily. Have we learned nothing from Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq? Today's weaponry makes occupation of an unwilling population untenable--it's just too easy to wage a guerrilla war.
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